COVID19 November Report: Rolling 12 weeks (since 3rd Sept.), no real impact on youth, the elderly affected the most

Analysis

Another week and once again the numbers haven’t really changed the story; those who are under the age of 40 without pre-existing conditions are faring much better than those aged 60 and above with pre-existing conditions.

And as YouTube and it’s partners insist of not allowing coverage of studying such statistics then we just need to go back to old school blogs and I highly recommend people do this as social media outlets like Twitter have become just pure ‘monotone’ in the hope that it will make a difference. Whoever controls the information controls the lies you don’t see.

The statistics below are the total deaths from the first date recording started (31st March 2020) until 25th November 2019, broken down by age group, with/without pre-existing conditions.

Age GroupWith pre-existing conditionsWithout pre-existing conditionsTotalChange from Last week
0-19194231
20-392284227017
40-5925273032830114
60-791441771315130778
80+20656661213171190

The total increase of deaths since last week was 2100 with 2041 (97.19%) those with one or more pre-existing conditions.

Over the 12 weeks period (since September 3rd) there has been no increase in deaths amongst the 0-19 age group where anyone who is a COVID case and also has no pre-existing conditions.

Table below shows the increase in deaths over that the 12 week (expanding from last week) for those without pre-existing conditions;

Age GroupIncrease
0-398*
40-5936
60-79138
80+149
*all deathsw were in the 20-39 age bracket

Now let’s look at the increase in deaths over the 12 week period for those with one or more pre-existing condition(s);

Age GroupIncrease
0-3950*
40-59495
60-793750
80+5359
*3 out of the 50 deaths were in the 0-19 age bracket

In that 12 week period we can also confirm that there has been no change in the proportion increase of deaths amongst the youngest group and 60+ where it stands with the age group 0-19 making up only 0.03% and those who are 60+ making up 94.2%.

Gender

As expected males make up the most of the deaths with the total number sitting at 23,999 and the female death toll at 15,569. Never the less this split group is just really for information purposes and dispels the continious rumours of how females are affected a lot more. You could do more studies to determine whether females are affected in the long term but we would need more data and breakdown of other factors too. Whichever way it’s looked at males are making up most of the numbers. The split via age group below;

Age GroupFemaleMaleUnknownTotal
0-1911120023
20-391211481270
40-59986184402830
60-7952249906015130
80+922712089121317
From the 2100 deaths males make up 1,230 and females make up 869

The differences are much smaller in the the younger groups so of course it’s important to note that medical conditions (with diet contributing) can also impact the numbers in the older age groups. Percentage breakdown sees almost males making up 66% in both the 40-59 and 60-79 age groups whilst the 0-19 the difference in the death totals is 1.

What do the pre-existing conditions breakdown tell us?

This is the first time in the streams/posts/reports that I have done where we will be looking at the breakdown of the pre-existing conditions listed by the NHS/Department of Health when it comes to England deaths.

You will know that the total deaths in England so far from COVID19 have been 37,974 – up from 35,874 the week before (increase of 2,100). However, in the earlier figures the total deaths as a result of having more one or more pre-existing condition(s) was 37,847. I haven’t had an explanation as to why the figure is slightly off but for argument sake we will go with the 37,974 figure.

Since March 31st this year the data below is a breakdown of the health conditions and total of deaths attributed to them;

ConditionDeathsPerc. proportion of total
Asthma27187%
Chronic Kidney Disease606816%
Chronic Neurological Disorder11673%
Chronic Pulmonary Disease612416%
Dementia674718%
Diabetes1010427%
Rheumatological Disorder12443%
Ischaemic Heart Disease261214%
Other2714571%
The figures above do not include those with learning disabilities or autism

Ignoring the ‘other’ condition in the table those with diabetes appear to be at higher risk but that doesn’t consider the amount of people living in England with diabetes. The current figure from what I have seen puts those with diabetes at 3.9 million (2018-2019) where as with Asthma sufferers the total figure is at about 4.5 million. Without knowin the total cases this would mean those with Diabetes are at higher risk when it comes to not only having to deal with the condition they have but also needing to beat a virus after contracting COVID. For the sake of this report I can’t officially confirm that those with diabetes are at much higher risk, at this time point it is an assumption.

First let’s take a look at the most common deaths as reported by the Office for National Statistics back in June. Below it shows those with Dementia and Alzheimer diseases was the most frequent underlying cause of death for deaths occuring in England.

Take both the total of deaths of Diabetes and Dementia when it comes to COVID we are looking at 16,851, at this stage we knew we are up against a virus that not only doesn’t have a cure but has a very low recovery rate amongst those 60+ age group.

However with Diabetes we have medicines, treatments and even in other cases ‘diet control’ to deal with Diabetes so we require further explanation as to why those with Diabetes are dying at a high rate. The simple explanation would be that their condition is at it’s worst stage or that the individual is doing a poor job of taking care of their diet – we really don’t know as such information has not been made available to us. Even if we take COVID off the charts we can see that heart disease is a huge problem and begs the question; if COVID19 never existed what kind of job would we have done when it comes to our general health?

Conclusion

I’m no science expert or even a statistician but I look at the numbers and can see that we are failing – I am drawing the same conclusions from last week’s stream; we are not doing a good job with our health and despite our “best” efforts the elderly are dying off at a faster rate even if you do not include Dementia/Alzheimers as part of the other conditions that may or may not have attributed to their death. This government, along with the media, are not doing anyone a favour by not giving us a full breakdown of the cases/deaths.

I will continue to bring these numbers up with more streams/videos and now start to ask the Department of Health for NHS England to find out more detail on those with pre-existing conditions and bring that feedback here on the nation state website.