The numbers tell us nothing about lockdowns or masks; the elderly and those who have medical conditions such as diabetes are at highest risk – this is not in dispute and anyone saying that everything is going to suffer is not only scaremongering but also committing the most henious crime of all – telling lies.
Either we focus on protecting those that are vulnerable or go for herd immunity to end this farce once and for all, there is no ‘good path’ to go down when it comes to this virus and not one scientist can definately come up with how this virus is so contagious, whether or not it’s man made, from a lab, let out accidently or deliberate – meanwhile we sit around and let tyrants walk all over us.
Okay, enough of the rant and now to the data/details of what COVID19 has shows us…
I have been tracking the numbers over the last 14/15 weeks when it comes to increases of deaths, two things we can establish;
- if you carry on as usual the virus is bound to spread
- if you lockdown the virus is contained
Yes, there you have it. Stating the obvious gets you TV time, who would have thought that lockdowns stop the spread whilst simultaneously destroying the social frabic and the economy of this country which will in turn cost more lives.
Total deaths since March this year shown below;
|Age Group||W/ Condition||W/O Condition||Total|
|0-19||21 (2)||6 (1)||27 (3)|
|20-39||250 (10)||42 (no change)||292 (10)|
|40-59||2718 (93)||326 (6)||3044 (99)|
|60-79||15871 (704)||769 (25)||16640 (729)|
|80+||22823 (1073)||711 (18)||23534 (1091)|
Comparing these numbers to the previous week the increase in deaths as a total has dropped from 2035 to 1932. Since the 8th October the numbers have jumped up with the older age groups then over the 3 week period from 19th November to 10th December saw the numbers drop by 936 in terms of the increase for the 80+ age group with pre-existing conditions.
The screenshot above shows the increases over the 14 week period with the set of data on the left covering those without pre-existing conditions whilst the set of datae to the right covers those with pre-existing conditions. As expected the numbers are greater on the right (the final column) since those with pre-existing conditions are at a greater risk. The numbers in the grey shade indicate the increase over the 3 week period, as explained the previous paragraph you can see the increase fell for the age group 80+ those with pre-existing conditions.
Bed Admissions tell us a different story
I have continued to capture the data showing the numbers when it comes to bed admissions for both new patients and existing inpatients, one thing the media fail to tell you is that for the most part the cases of COVID are found with those already in Hospital based on the data they have submitted. It tends to be 75% inpatients against 25% new admissions, screenshot below shows data from March till November (data for December will be added in January 2021)
Discharges typically rise as the number of new admissions go up so there is as you would expect a ‘lag’, other factors include if the new patient has existing health problems etc. From October to November the number of the inpatients who tested positive for COVID went up by almost 13,000 to 31,213 whilst the new admissions with COVID nearly reach 10,000. We can do better to keep the number of new admissions down but that doesn’t explain what is happening in our Hospitals, the numbers are alarming and we have to start asking questions about the situation inside these wards and work out why the numbers are too high. Of course in hospitals inpatients are in wards for a number of different reasons and depending on their condition the immune system won’t be at it’s best – again, we need an explanation from the NHS as to what’s happening.
More data came in for beds occupied by both COVID/NON-COVID patients, the number recorded on the 3rd December was 113,058 whilst out of that number the amount of beds occupied by COVID patients was 12,896. The last recording was on the 10th December and that number rose to 13,796. To put things into perspective that is still less than the figure we had on the 12th April where it was at 18,970. Again, no reason to celebrate but one must work out the fact that beds occupied has risen over 40,000 since then and the percentage taken up by COVID patients is currently at 11.41%. This has dropped by a couple of percentage points since November, however, we expect this to rise as we approach influenza season.
The screengrab below shows the most recent figures to give you an idea of how things are with hospital beds.
COVID Patients with Pre-existing conditions
Below are the increase in deaths of those who have one or more pre-existing condition.
|Chronic Kidney Disease||368|
|Chronic Neurological Disorder||42|
|Chronic Pulmonary Disease||345|
|Ischaemic Heart Disease||254|
|Received treatment for a Mental Health condition||34|
|Learning Disability and/or Autism||12|
And the following are the current numbers of those who have died since March this year broken down by medical condition(s).
|Chronic Kidney Disease||6822|
|Chronic Neurological Disorder||1256|
|Chronic Pulmonary Disease||6792|
|Ischaemic Heart Disease||3157|
|Received treatment for a Mental Health condition||1472|
|Learning Disability and/or Autism||640|
Diabetes tops the list, as noted in my previous post on COVID numbers it is concerning that we haven’t had more research done or looked at alternative treatments because the focus has really been on the elderly (with some respect they are in the vulnerable group but looking at the age group 80+ with no pre-existing conditions the numbers are far less than those who are in the age bracket 40-59 and 60-79 with pre-existing conditions).
The evidence here clearly shows the vulnerable groups are;
- 60+ age group
- Heavy drinkers
If we take averages of beds that have been occupied by COVID19 patients it has jumped up significantly from October to November – looking at 6.8%. Even though it’s almost half of what it was back in April, as long as we do a better job with inpatients in hospitals where doctors/nurses either need more support or require better PPE equipment to ensure not only do they deal with COVID should they get it but also avoid the spread happening to other wards inside the hospitals in which they operate then we can avoid a surge in cases.
Temporary Hospitals was the plan from this government at the early stages of the pandemic but they decided to shy away from it – this was a big mistake, ideal to put the most vulnerable here and away from the main wards in the NHS hospitals that are under constant pressure.
As we don’t know the status of each diabetic in this country it is important, now more than ever, that we start seriously thinking about having temporary clinics/hospitals for the elderly and/or those who have diabetes – numbers are not there to be disputed, it clearly shows diabetics are at the highest risk and should the trend continue after COVID19 eventually disappears we could be looking at an estimate of an additional 8000-13000 deaths over the next 5 to 6 months. This is an assumption that most of those who have died who were also diabetic were in the 60-79 age group. Whichever age group they may fall into we need to do more, the vaccines may be a way out for those who are at most risk, would be good to know the data on those who were in the trial phases that were diabetic and how many experience bad symptoms.
In the mean time I am waiting to hear back from NHS England with regards to my FOI request regarding the other category as to how those numbers are broken down, once I get the response I will post it here on the website as a new post.