At this point it doesn’t really matter as it is still too early, nor will it matter if Le Pen leads in the 1st round as we know that the 2nd round tends to pivot to a more “centrist” candidate – your guess is only as good as mine. It was predicted back in October 2020 that Le Pen could in fact top the poll in 2021 (article via Bloomberg – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-04/france-s-le-pen-could-win-first-round-of-2022-elections-poll)
Either way people are getting tired of the status quo, they had Sarkozy (turned out to be corrupt), Hollande (the socialist that was anything but socialist), and now Macron who was seen as the only choice after beating Le Pen in the run off back in 2017.
Macron has enough problems, you have coronavirus lockdowns causing unease amongst the populace, he has promised to crackdown on… incest – yes this is a thing in France and is looking to tighten legislation. Ugh.
NB. One thing to remember the “Conservative” candidate François Fillon was found out following the stories that stated he had paid members of his family for doing “work” – he was convicted of fraud and misuse of funds. No one knows how the “Conservatives” will fare out this time.
Polls below, courtesy of Europe Elects…