Or they are just bad at this; I haven’t seen anything like this certainly in my lifetime.
The Daily DeTelegraph just posted today with the title, “Full reopening in June could trigger hospitalisations as high as January peak” – if that’s the case then what was the point in vaccines? Are they now saying the data was false and the level of efficacy is way lower?
Again a reminder about my post for Easter.
No one can forbid you from seeing your relatives.
No one can stop you from opening your business and serve customers.
No one can stop you holding your child in your arms, no one can force you to wear a mask.
Papers released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) lay out a scenario in which the numbers in hospital with the virus return to the levels seen at the start of this year.
A key Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M-O) document on the easing of restrictions describes “considerable uncertainty” about the level of control over the virus at each step of the Government’s roadmap to unlock the country.
But it says it is “highly likely that there will be a further resurgence in hospitalisations and deaths after the later steps of the roadmap”.
The papers were released on Monday as Boris Johnson prepared to update the nation on the next steps in the easing of restrictions, with step two – the reopening of non-essential shops, and outdoor hospitality – due to go ahead next week.
Step three – which would see pubs and restaurants allowed to serve indoors and people allowed to mix indoors subject to the “rule of six” – has been given an earliest date of May 17. Full unlock, the fourth step of the roadmap, is due no sooner than June 21.
But the papers released by Sage suggest this could see the numbers in hospital return to the levels seen at the start of this year, with more than 30,000 Covid cases. One of the papers suggests deaths could also spike to the peak seen earlier this year.
The key document from SPI-M-O, dated March 31, says: “It is highly likely that there will be a further resurgence in hospitalisations and deaths after the later steps of the roadmap. The scale, shape, and timing of any resurgence remain highly uncertain.
“In most scenarios modelled, any peak is smaller than the wave seen in January 2021. However, scenarios with little transmission reduction after step two, or with pessimistic but plausible vaccine efficacy assumptions, can result in resurgences in hospitalisations of a similar scale to January 2021.”
Such a surge would be likely to occur between summer and autumn, the paper says. It adds that “maintaining baseline measures” such as social distancing in order to reduce transmission once restrictions are lifted “is almost certain to save many lives and minimise the threat to hospital capacity”.
The document summarises models drawn up by Warwick University, Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).
One model by Imperial College London suggests that a wave of new admissions after lockdown is released could see hospital occupancy peak at almost 27,000 cases, close to the levels in January. Such a scenario is based on “pessimistic but plausible” assumptions about the efficacy of vaccines, with central modelling from Imperial suggesting a peak of 6,700 inpatients.
Modelling by Warwick has a central assumption with an admissions peak of around 10,000, and a paper by the LSHTM suggests deaths could return to the peaks seen earlier this year.
The modelling does not take account the risk from new variants, nor changes that might take effect if international travel is allowed.